NOV 8 | US 2016 ELECTION ANALYSIS

Presidential Election Prediction

Nov8 predicts that Hillary Clinton will win the election with 323 of the 538 electoral votes. This is based on 16 states that are Safely Democratic worth 190 electoral votes, 17 states that are Safely Republican worth 106 electoral votes and 11 swing states that are polling in favour of Clinton worth 133 electoral votes.

Trump would need to win (in order of how likely Trump is to win, lowest to highest) Arizona, Maine (2nd District), Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin (swing states where Clinton is more likely to win than Trump) in order to win the election with 270 electoral votes.

On the other hand, if Clinton wins Arizona, Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, Nebraska (2nd District), Texas, Alaska, Missouri and Utah (swing states where Trump is more likely to win than Clinton), then she could get 432 electoral votes, a result not bested since 1984 by Ronald Reagan and not bested by another Democrat since 1964 by Lyndon B. Johnson.

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House Elections Prediction

Nov8 predicts that the U.S. House of Representatives will be formed of 205 Democratic seats and 230 Republican seats. This is a net gain of 17 seats for the Democrats when compared the current number of seats (188-D, 247-R).

This is based on 18 Republican seats that the Democrats are likely to gain based on current polling and 1 Democratic seat that the Republicans are likely to gain. There are 18 Republican seats that are very close and tightly contested. If the Democrats were to win all of these, they would have a majority in the House with 223 seats (218 seats needed for a majority)but this is an unlikely result.

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Senate Elections Prediction

Nov8 predicts that the U.S. Senate will be formed of 53 Democratic seats (including 2 independents who caucus for the Democrats) and 47 Republican seats.

This is based on 7 Republican seats which are currently favouring the Democrats in polling.

There is one Democratic seat (Nevada) that could be gained by the Republicans but polling suggests that the Democrats will hold it.

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Gubernatorial Elections Prection

Nov8 predicts that the Democrats will have 21 state governors (including 1 independent whose lieutenant governor is a Democrat) and the Republicans will have 29.

This is based on 2 states that we predict will be gained by the Democrats (Indiana and North Carolina).